December 2003
China’s relationship with ASEAN is peaceful at present with potential for territorial conflict and economic competition in the future. Despite the good relations shared, there still exists the perception of China as a looming threat. Herein lies one of the biggest challenges to improved relations, and China’s actions in the future will impact on whether this view is aggravated or alleviated. Overall, China and ASEAN share similar views on issues such as human rights, security, economic policy and the desire to have regional stability and prosperity. Their desire for security cooperation has somewhat muffled the potential for armed conflict for disputed territory and this is proven in the diplomatic manner in which they have negotiated ways to alleviate tensions. Furthermore ASEAN states believe that China does indeed have an important role to play in the region, and have therefore welcomed it as a security and economic consultant in the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). It is mutually recognised therefore, that the normalisation of ties facilitates the best interests of all parties involved, and this is largely reflected in current Sino-ASEAN relations.
Sino-ASEAN relations have markedly improved after the Cold War, following reconciliation with Indonesia and Vietnam in the 1990’s 1. ASEAN states have also believed that China is presently no longer interested in exporting its socialist ideology and that stability in the region is of greater importance and benefit2. Premier Li Peng confirmed this in his summary about the principles of China-ASEAN ties3. Furthermore, ASEAN states are aware that stability in the region would be in China’s best interests since it would allow for the government to concentrate on other issues of importance like economic progress, the integration of Taiwan into the mainland and the growing threat of muslim fundamentalism in the post-Soviet Union Central Asian republics4. It is mutually understood therefore, that relations between China and ASEAN, depend on continued peace in the Asia-Pacific region, and that maintaining stability contributes significantly to their interests.
In addition to this China has expressed its desire for a multipolar world where major powers could cooperate to preserve peace and prosperity5. The reasons for believing this include the dissatisfaction with US hegemonic actions (such as in the NATO bombing of Kosovo)6, and more importantly, the aspiration to play a greater role in Asia, which ultimately translates into the desire for a reduced and more balanced role for Japan and the USA. Chinese officials view ASEAN as a means of securing a quadrangular relationship (between ASEAN, Japan, USA and China) therefore balancing power in the region7. This desire is also reflected by many ASEAN states especially those who are deeply suspicious of a more powerful Japanese presence8 and/or a greater US role in the region9. Malaysia is an example of such a state10. This view however is not shared by Singaporean officials who prefer a stronger US role for military and security reasons11. Filipino leaders have also expressed the desire for a continued US presence in the Asia-Pacific region12. Therefore, China’s preference of achieving a multipolar world and a shared balance of power in the region is yet another foundation on which strong ties between many ASEAN states and China may develop.
China and ASEAN states also share similar socio-political values and norms such as the view on human rights and identity. This is further strengthened by the shared belief that the standard perception of human rights is western based and reflects an attempt at controlling the governments of developing states13. Dr Mahathir is an outspoken critic of this predominantly western model of human rights and therefore shares this view with Chinese officials14. The Asian model of human rights places economic rights above political and social rights which is at odds with the western model of placing socio-political rights above economic rights15. As a result, ASEAN criticism of China’s human rights abuses have been somewhat muted in comparison to other states16. In addition to agreement over human rights, China and ASEAN states share the outright condemnation of interference in internal affairs of a state. The justification used by American spokespeople for NATO, claiming that humanitarian intervention could be considered legal under international law is not supported by those who argue that such actions could be used by powerful states to interfere in the affairs of a sovereign state17. In opposition to this, many ASEAN states are against a precedent allowing for the violation of state sovereignty since such actions undermine the fundamental tenet of ASEAN’s formation which firmly stipulates the prohibition of interference of any ASEAN state in the internal affairs of another ASEAN state18. And so, such shared interests and views in socio-political organisation and management along with some beliefs on how international relations should be carried out, have added to a strengthened relationship between China and ASEAN.
Despite the shared interests and mutually beneficial nature of Sino-ASEAN relationship, there are some potential sources of conflict. This is worsened by general mistrust of China. There is the recognised ability for China to become immensely powerful and thus there appears to be the possibility for Chinese officials to abuse this power19. Such mistrust stems from the pre-Cold war period when China played an important role in the communist insurgencies within ASEAN states like Malaysia and Indonesia20. Despite reconciliation, these states are not overly comfortable with the apparent looming China threat. As Whiting states “No ASEAN member has had a positive record of relations with China sufficient to outweigh the negative memory”21. Suspicion of the intentions and capabilities of China as a major power therefore, does pose a problem in China-ASEAN relations.
Economic relations between China and ASEAN poses as one of the likely sources for conflict and/or cooperation. Despite the magnitude of trade benefits, there still exists potential for friction. Many ASEAN states have a positive view of China’s emergence as a major economic player in the region along with Japan22. Malaysian leadership has expressed views of China as a developing economic leader in the ASEAN region23. Trade between ASEAN and China has increased from US$14.29 billion in 1994 to US$25.04 billion in 199724, and has increased more than 25 times since 197525. Furthermore, in 1998 China became ASEAN’s fourth largest trading partner26. Singapore is also the biggest ASEAN investor, accounting for 77.5% of total investments (from ASEAN)27. Moreover, this is set to increase in the future since both states are keen to develop greater economic ties such as the US$36 billion that Singaporeans have agreed to invest in China as of April 200128. Tourism has also flourished with more people from China visiting ASEAN states and vice-versa29. Improved trade relations depend on increased peace, prosperity and stability in the region, and the importance of this fact is recognised and maintained by China and ASEAN states. This is best exemplified by China’s actions during and after the Asian financial crisis which has helped extinguish fears of China using the situation to secure its own interests at the expense of weakened ASEAN economies30. The success of China’s economic policies to alleviate the effects of the financial crisis has far superseded that of Japan, which has furthered this favourable view of China as an economic leader31. Trade and economic cooperation are thus important factors in the growing improvement of relations.
However despite economic cooperation, there is also the possibility for economic and trade competition. ASEAN economies rely on manufactured products and labour intensive goods like clothing and textiles, which constitutes a large portion of China’s exports as well32. There is concern that China’s market will be more attractive given the sheer sise and the lack of controls over cheap labour; and that China will saturate the region with cheap manufactured goods leaving the ASEAN economies unable to cope33. Competition is thus set to increase unless ASEAN states diversify their exports. According to Wong, the expanding Chinese economy could disrupt many ASEAN economies34. There exists therefore, the potential for economic competition to sour relations between China and ASEAN.
In addition to economic competition, there is the prospect of China and ASEAN becoming competitors for foreign direct investment. ASEAN’s leading economic partners such as the US and European Union might be drawn to investment deals in China35. Singapore has claimed that China could become “a big ‘vacuum cleaner’ that could suck up a lot of foreign investment”36. Such a possibility is economically threatening to ASEAN states especially after the Asian financial crisis. In addition to this, there are many local born and overseas Chinese in ASEAN states who have secured economic advantages and privileges37. Many of these overseas Chinese have originated from the coastal provinces of China38. In addition to this, Chinese businesses have been extremely successful. For example, in Malaysia about forty of them have capital of over US$200 million each39. Such economic success has exacerbated nationalistic anti-Chinese sentiment and has not been viewed approvingly by many local communities especially in Malaysia and Indonesia. The onslaught of the Asian financial crisis, for instance, resulted in Chinese Indonesian’s becoming the victims of ethnic riots40. Such instability and potentially dangerous activities have prompted Chinese in ASEAN to move investments, assets and capital to other countries, including China41. This will exacerbate tensions within ASEAN states especially when coupled with the aforementioned economic competition. However, China has been careful not to offer support for these Chinese communities or condemn the anti-Chinese riots42 since such actions would drive a wedge in the workings of a good relationship and dredge up memories of the past experiences with communist insurgencies. Furthermore, China’s actions during the financial crisis has restored mutual respect and trust. Competition for foreign investment, the current anti-Chinese sentiment, their economic status and the use of their success to invest outside of ASEAN states will thus serve to exacerbate relations with China.
ASEAN’s relationship with Taiwan is another issue that has served as an irritant to China. Singapore, in particular has strong ties with Taiwan economically and militarily43. Singaporean troops train in Taiwan where the terrain is best suited for combat preparation44 while trade and investment exchanges between the two states are extremely mutually beneficial45. Taiwan also imports about US$7.3 billion from Malaysia (1997) and is its fourth largest trading partner46. ASEAN states have no desire to risk economic relations with Taiwan just to please Chinese officials but their recognition of the Peoples Republic of China’s government as the sole legitimate government of China, has helped soften the friction over this issue47. And so while Taiwan-ASEAN relations are not detrimental to Sino-ASEAN relations, they can have negative repercussions.
Territorial claims in the South China Sea appears to be the biggest threat to Sino-ASEAN relations. The situation has the potential to cascade into armed conflict, and relations with the Philippines and Vietnam has been particularly volatile48. The Spratly islands have significant resource and strategic advantages to whoever secures them thus resulting in the unwillingness of claimants to give up their demands49. This is coupled with the fact that to give up claim to the islands is to give up sovereignty which, to all parties, is non negotiable50. This dispute over the Spratly islands, therefore, presents a test case where China’s actions will determine how relations will develop. Contingency plans have been underway to prepare for conflict in the region by enhancing the capabilities of the navy (SSF) and engaging in training exercising around the islands51. Furthermore, China has made moves to occupy and claim parts of the archipelago by occupying Mischief Reef in 199552 and contracting an American oil exploration company to survey the resource potential53. Such activities can be construed as threatening especially given the military capability and might of the Chinese military compared to ASEAN forces54. Furthermore, Storey believes this to be an example of ‘creeping assertiveness’ – an interesting description of the gradual increase of a Chinese presence in the South China Sea without the implication of armed conflict55. The result of such actions is increased suspicion amongst ASEAN members as to China’s intentions and resolve to resort to violence.
Despite the apparent volatile nature of the Spratly dispute, ASEAN members and China have recognised the need to maintain peaceful relations and have engaged in various diplomatic measures to diffuse tensions. For example, the workshop on ‘Managing Potential Conflicts in the South China Sea’, the ASEAN-China Dialogues, and the signing of the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia have all proven the desire to maintain peace and stability in the region despite territorial disputes56. In addition to this, China’s decision to use international law and the UNCLOS57 to investigate the dispute has calmed tensions. The diplomatic handling of the Spratly dispute can be seen to work towards China’s best interests because it implies significant and far-reaching consequences. An armed conflict over the islands will inevitably draw the Japanese and Americans into the region since it threatens their interests – the sea route being an economic lifeline for Japan in particular58. Furthermore, a conflict, by concentrating resources and military presence in the region, might work against Chinese interests if it sparks conflict in the Taiwan Strait. In other words, if Taiwan decides to move for independence with American support, China will not be in a position to fight two wars on the opposite ends of the Asia-Pacific region59. And so while there does exist potential for armed conflict over the islands, it is in China’s best interests not to escalate tension and therefore, for the time being, the status quo is maintained.
In brief, it can be deduced that relations between China and ASEAN are calm for the moment. Despite having suspicions about the intentions and capabilities of such a large power, ASEAN states are aware of China’s desire to promote peace and stability in the region. They therefore share similar interests and views that a peaceful Asia-Pacific region will secure economic benefits for all concerned. Furthermore, a greater presence will help counter the hegemonic activities of the US and Japan. Shared interests coincide with shared values and beliefs about socio-political management, such as the ASEAN model of human rights as opposed to the Western model. Meanwhile, economic competition, while an important area of contention might work as a ‘wake up call’ for ASEAN states to diversify exports. Relying on manufactured products and other narrow sources of income is not sustainable long term. Moreover, China’s responsible actions during and after the Asian financial crisis can be taken as evidence that stifling ASEAN economies is not a viable option for maintaining good relations anyway. The greatest challenge to Sino-ASEAN relations therefore, lies in the disputed territory of the South China Sea. While this has the potential to erupt into armed conflict, it is recognised that this is not in the best interests of China at present. As stated by Dr You Ji, “It is only a potential flashpoint, however, as all the claimants are under real constraints that prevent them from taking any action”60. It is unlikely therefore, that a military confrontation will emerge in the near future, especially after the engagement of various negotiations and diplomatic dialogues. For the time being, ASEAN and China have agreed to disagree on the dispute in the interests of maintaining the status quo in the region. And so it can be concluded that it is the importance of securing peace and stability that maintains and drives Chinese foreign policy when dealing with ASEAN, leaving it unlikely for conflict to erupt.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Ahmad, Reme, “ASEAN must latch on to China’s growth”, http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/home, May 8, 2002.
Association of Southeast Asian Nations: An overview, http://www.aseansec.org/menu.asp?action=2&content=2, May 21, 2002.
Antolik, Michael, “The ASEAN Regional Forum: The Spirit of Constructive Engagement”, Contemporary Southeast Asia, September 1994, (16)2, pp. 117-135.
Bodansky, Yossef, “Beijing and the Kosovo crisis: Learning from the NATO war against Yugoslavia, the PRC polishes the skills needed to fight asymmetrical wars”. Defense and Foreign Affairs Strategic Policy, May/Jun 1999, 27(5/6), p. 4-12.
Cheng, Joseph, “ASEAN policy in the 1990’s: Pushing for Regional Multipolarity”, Contemporary Southeast Asia, (21)2, pp. 176-204.
Ganeson N., “ASEAN’s Relations with Major External Powers”, Contemporary Southeast Asia, August 2000, (22)2, pp. 258-271.
Hall, S. ‘NATO campaign was legal’, Human Rights Defender , September, 1999, 8, pp. 26-28.
Hau Boon Lai, “From Inertia to initiative”. http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/home, May 8, 2001.
Lee Lai To, “ASEAN and the South China Sea Conflicts”, The Pacific Review, 1995, (8)3, pp. 531-543.
Lee Lai To, “East Asian Assessments of China’s Security Policy” International Affairs, 1997, (73)2, pp. 251-262.
Lee Lai To, “China’s Relations with ASEAN: Partners in the 21st Century?”, Pacifica Review, February 2001, (13)1, pp. 61-71.
Ong Hwee Hwee, “China ‘must stay friendly with S E Asia’, http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/home, May 8, 2002.
Smith Jr, Esmond D., “China’s Aspirations in the Spratly Islands”, Contemporary Southeast Asia, December 1994, (16)3, pp. 274-291.
Storey, Ian James, “Creeping Assertiveness: China, The Philippines and the South China Sea Dispute”, Contemporary Southeast Asia, April 1999, (21)1, pp. 95-114.
Teo, Larry, “China’s V-P ‘will forge closer ties with S’pore”, http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/home, May 1, 2002.
Whiting, Allen S., “ASEAN eyes China: The Security Dimension”, Asian Survey, April 1997, (37)4, pp. 299-322.
Wong, John, “An overview of ASEAN-China Economic Relations”, in Chia Siow-Yue and Cheng Bifan (eds.), ASEAN-China Economic Relations: Trends and Patterns, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, 1987, p. 1-20.
You Ji, “A Test Case for China’s Defence and Foreign Policies”, Contemporary Southeast Asia, March 1995, (16)4, pp. 375-397.
You Ji, Lecture for POLS5127, 17 April 2002.
1 Cheng, Joseph, “ASEAN policy in the 1990’s: Pushing for Regional Multipolarity”, Contemporary Southeast Asia, (21)2, p. 179.
2 Ibid., p. 178.
3 Ibid., 179.
4 Ibid., p. 181.
5 Ibid., p. 182-183.
6 Bodansky, Yossef, “Beijing and the Kosovo crisis: Learning from the NATO war against Yugoslavia, the PRC polishes the skills needed to fight asymmetrical wars”. Defense and Foreign Affairs Strategic Policy, May/Jun 1999, 27(5/6), p. 6.
7 Ganeson N., “ASEAN’s Relations with Major External Powers”, Contemporary Southeast Asia, August 2000, (22)2, p. 271.
8 Cheng, op. cit., p. 186-187.
9 Lee Lai To, “China’s Relations with ASEAN: Partners in the 21st Century?”, Pacifica Review, February 2001, (13)1, p. 65.
10 Cheng, op. cit., p. 187.
11 Lee Lai To, op. cit., p. 71.
12 Storey, Ian James, “Creeping Assertiveness: China, The Philippines and the South China Sea Dispute”, Contemporary Southeast Asia, April 1999, (21)1, p. 113.
13 Antolik, Michael, “The ASEAN Regional Forum: The Spirit of Constructive Engagement”, Contemporary Southeast Asia, September 1994, (16)2, p. 129.
14 Cheng, op. cit., p. 187.
15 You Ji, Lecture for POLS5127, 17 April 2002.
16 Antolik, op.cit., p. 129.
17 Hall, S. ‘NATO campaign was legal’, Human Rights Defender , September, 1999, 8, pp. 26-27.
18 Association of Southeast Asian Nations: An overview, http://www.aseansec.org/menu.asp?action=2&content=2, May 21, 2002.
19 Whiting, Allen S., “ASEAN eyes China: The Security Dimension”, Asian Survey, April 1997, (37)4, p. 302.
20 Ibid., p. 302.
21 Ibid., p. 303.
22 Lee Lai To, op. cit., p. 65.
23 Whiting, op. cit., p. 311.
24 Cheng, op. cit., p. 193.
25 Lee Lai To, op cit., p. 66.
26 Ibid., p. 66.
27 Cheng, op. cit., p. 193.
28 Teo, Larry, “China’s V-P ‘will forge closer ties with S’pore”, http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/home, May 1, 2002.
29 Lee Lai To, op. cit., p. 67.
30 Ibid., p. 68.
31 You Ji, ibid.,
32 Wong, John, “An overview of ASEAN-China Economic Relations”, in Chia Siow-Yue and Cheng Bifan (eds.), ASEAN-China Economic Relations: Trends and Patterns, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, 1987, p. 16.
33 Ibid., p. 16.
34 Ibid., p. 10.
35 Lee Lai To, op. cit., p. 67.
36 Lee Lai To, op. cit., p. 67.
37 Cheng, op. cit., p. 196.
38 Ibid., p. 195.
39 Ibid., p. 195.
40 Ibid., p. 196.
41 Ibid., p. 196.
42 Ibid., p. 196.
43 Whiting, op cit., p. 308.
44 Ibid., p. 308.
45 Cheng, op. cit., p. 198.
46 Ibid., p. 198.
47 Ibid., p. 198.
48 Smith Jr, Esmond D., “China’s Aspirations in the Spratly Islands”, Contemporary Southeast Asia, December 1994, (16)3, p. 275.
49 Ibid., pp. 277-278.
50 You Ji, “A Test Case for China’s Defence and Foreign Policies”, Contemporary Southeast Asia, March 1995, (16)4, pp. 390.
51 You Ji, op. cit., p. 385.
52 Storey, op cit., p. 98.
53 Smith, op cit., p. 281.
54 Storey, op. cit., p. 113.
55 Ibid., p. 99.
56 Lee Lai To, op cit., p. 69.
57 Ibid., p. 69.
58 Smith, op cit., p. 287.
59 You Ji, op cit., Lecture.
60 You Ji, op cit., p. 390.